Last data update: 2024-11-05. Author's Note November 5th: Happy Election Day everyone! I've doubled the usual number of simulations for my final pre-election forecast; this last batch of numbers is based on 100,000 simulated outcomes. I've written a final qualitative update on my Substack and will be providing live updates as the night drags on.

The 2024 US Presidential Election

Get the latest predictions and analysis for the 2024 Election. Explore detailed state forecasts, historical trends, polling averages, and more.

Interactive Map

Explore detailed presidential aggregate and state-level forecasts in this interactive map.

Explore Electoral Map

National Forecast

View a national-level overview of the 2024 election alongside comprehensive data visualizations and trends.

View National Trends

State Forecast

View comprehensive data visualizations and trends for each state in the 2024 election.

View State Trends

Sandbox

Select simulation conditions and see how they change the election's outcome.

Explore Simulation Sandbox

Data

View and download data to further investigate election trends and patterns.

Analyze Data

About This Project

This project aims to provide comprehensive and up-to-date forecasts for the 2024 US Presidential Election, derived purely from election polls and statistical methods.
A detailed Overview and Methodology can be found at my substack, alongside detailed written analysis.

Simulation Results

Final Results

State	State Abbr.	Electoral Votes	Democratic Win Chance	Republican Win Chance	Current Polling Average	Tipping-Point Chance
Alabama	AL	9	0	100	-	0
Alaska	AK	3	2.04	97.96	R+ 9.11	0.00038
Arizona	AZ	11	26.07	73.92	R+ 2.75	0.05424
Arkansas	AR	6	0.11	99.89	R+ 16.36	2e-05
California	CA	54	100.0	0.01	D+ 25.65	2e-05
Colorado	CO	10	99.93	0.07	D+ 12.52	1e-05
Connecticut	CT	7	99.67	0.33	D+ 13.91	0.0001
Delaware	DE	3	99.18	0.82	D+ 15.34	6e-05
District of Columbia	DC	3	100	0	-	0
Election	USA	538	45.47	53.33	-	1
Florida	FL	30	7.6	92.4	R+ 6.04	0.00972
Georgia	GA	16	38.23	61.77	R+ 1.16	0.19024
Hawaii	HI	4	99.93	0.07	-	1e-05
Idaho	ID	4	0.01	99.98	-	0
Illinois	IL	19	99.98	0.01	D+ 15.35	0
Indiana	IN	11	0.04	99.95	R+ 17.19	5e-05
Iowa	IA	6	14.34	85.66	R+ 4.82	0.00863
Kansas	KS	6	1.06	98.94	R+ 9.71	0.0001
Kentucky	KY	8	0.0	100.0	-	0
Louisiana	LA	8	0.02	99.98	-	2e-05
Maine	ME	2	98.54	1.46	D+ 9.58	2e-05
Maine 1st CD	ME-1	1	100.0	0.0	D+ 22.66	0
Maine 2nd CD	ME-2	1	13.73	86.28	R+ 4.73	0.0032
Maryland	MD	10	100.0	0.0	D+ 26.97	0
Massachusetts	MA	11	100.0	0.0	D+ 26.46	0
Michigan	MI	15	55.67	44.32	D+ 0.64	0.12666
Minnesota	MN	10	86.49	13.51	D+ 4.53	0.00715
Mississippi	MS	6	0.0	100.0	-	0
Missouri	MO	10	0.15	99.85	R+ 14.68	0.00012
Montana	MT	4	0.05	99.95	R+ 19.72	3e-05
Nebraska	NE	2	0.05	99.95	R+ 15.8	1e-05
Nebraska 1st CD	NE-1	1	2.32	97.68	R+ 8.94	0.00023
Nebraska 2nd CD	NE-2	1	97.91	2.09	D+ 9.15	5e-05
Nebraska 3rd CD	NE-3	1	0	100	R+ 45.94	0
Nevada	NV	6	41.72	58.28	R+ 0.88	0.04718
New Hampshire	NH	4	93.49	6.51	D+ 6.43	0.00078
New Jersey	NJ	14	99.87	0.13	D+ 15.57	8e-05
New Mexico	NM	5	92.36	7.64	D+ 5.69	0.00078
New York	NY	28	99.88	0.12	D+ 16.98	0.0001
North Carolina	NC	16	38.62	61.38	R+ 1.13	0.1717
North Dakota	ND	3	0.0	100.0	R+ 29.5	0
Ohio	OH	17	2.81	97.19	R+ 8.84	0.0029
Oklahoma	OK	7	0.0	100.0	R+ 36.52	0
Oregon	OR	8	95.06	4.94	D+ 7.51	0.00154
Pennsylvania	PA	19	48.65	51.35	R+ 0.15	0.27756
Rhode Island	RI	4	98.8	1.2	D+ 13.67	0.00033
South Carolina	SC	9	0.1	99.9	R+ 13.96	2e-05
South Dakota	SD	3	0.0	100.0	R+ 26.79	0
Tennessee	TN	11	0.03	99.97	R+ 23.6	1e-05
Texas	TX	40	2.89	97.11	R+ 8.35	0.0036
Utah	UT	6	0.01	99.99	R+ 22.6	0
Vermont	VT	3	100	0	D+ 31.64	0
Virginia	VA	13	93.88	6.12	D+ 5.98	0.00045
Washington	WA	12	99.98	0.02	D+ 16.37	1e-05
West Virginia	WV	4	0.01	99.99	R+ 28.97	1e-05
Wisconsin	WI	10	55.48	44.52	D+ 0.7	0.09188
Wyoming	WY	3	0	100	R+ 42.69	0

Popular Vote Table

Download

Download Results Download NPV Point Breaks

Election Forecast 2024

Hello, and thank you for visiting my election forecast! This is a short reference page, you can find more detail and a quick description of my methodology here.

One thing I want to make clear is that this is a polls-only forecast. All my data inputs are either national-level or state-level general election polling between the two major party candidates; I do not consider economic trends, demographics, or any other non-polling piece of information.

Sources

The model is built on a lot of outside data, especially state-level polling averages. I am using a combination of Silver Bulletin and 538's polling information/averages for current and past simulations dating back to 1968 (as a model input). Both are incredible public-facing resources and I'm very grateful to have had access to them.

Past election results, for training purposes, have been sourced from Dave Liep's election atlas and MIT's data science lab.

Notes

This forecast only tracks the presidential race.
This forecast considers the margin of victory between the two major parties, not the actual vote tallies, and disregards third-party candidates in this calculation.
This forecast treats electoral ties as wins for the Republican party, seeing as Republicans control the tie-breaking House of Representatives.

A more detailed description of my methodology can be found here.

Disclaimer

This model is a work in progress, and I am currently building it as a personal project not a piece of professional/academic work. It contains a handful of omissions, which you can read more about here.

If you have any thoughts, questions, or comments, don't hesitate to reach me at benjamingrayzel@gmail.com. Thanks for visiting!

Originally deployed as an R Shiny app on shinyapps.io; converted to a static archive in 2026.